Sprint race dress rehearsal showed Red Bull’s rivals need find something special

If one of the best aspects of sprint weekends is that the lack of practice time leaves teams in the dark heading into competitive sessions, then one clear criticism of the format is how it can rob much of the mystery from a grand prix.

After a qualifying session on a Saturday, all the intrigue should be about whether Sergio Perez can challenge team mate and pole winner Max Verstappenfor victory, or if Fernando Alonso and the McLarens behind him could put pressure on the Red Bulls ahead over the grand prix.

But in the form of Saturday’s sprint race, we’ve already seen what is effective a 19-lap extended preview of what we can expect to see on Sunday – and it was not encouraging viewing for Red Bull’s rivals.

It took Verstappen eight laps to catch Lewis Hamilton one more lap to pass him then 11 more to build a lead of 13 seconds by the chequered flag. Verstappen was the only driver running in the 1’41s by the end of the race, having started on a set of three-lap-old used mediums. Rather than back off and cruise to the end, Verstappen gained more useful data for the grand prix by keeping his pace up. And the signs were encouraging for his chances of victory.

“It definitely gave you a bit more of an idea with the deg, what to look at, what to work on for tomorrow,” Verstappen said. “I think if the car is even half as good as what it as in the sprint I think we will be alright.”

Weather

The Shanghai weather has already been a wildcard factor this weekend, helping to shake up the grid for the sprint race. However current projections are a dry grand prix is all but assured, meaning that all that sprint race data will be relevant heading into Sunday.

But while cloudy skies and ambient temperatures around 22C are to be expected again, what could be different is how the wind behaves. The cars have proved particularly sensitive to wind around the relatively flat and wide open spaces of the Shanghai circuit, with some indication that a tailwind down the long back straight may have contributed to at least a handful of drivers locking up under braking for the hairpin at crucial points, notably Hamilton.

Front row starter Perez says Red Bull factored changes in wind speed into their set-up adjustments before the sprint race that they will carry over into Sunday.

“The change in wind has been quite substantial,” Perez said. “I think given that it’s quite a low-grip circuit, a bit of a change in the wind conditions does affect a lot more than probably other places. So we learned a lot from the conditions earlier in the sprint and we adjusted accordingly.”

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Start

As Saturday’s sprint race showed, race starts in Shanghai are more than about the short run to the first corner. The unique, near-endless opening turn sees drivers turning right for around ten seconds at opening lap speeds before they quickly jerk the steering wheel left for turn two. The last six race starts at Shanghai have seen the pole winner lead the opening lap only three times.

That gives drivers plenty of time, and space, to jockey for position – as Lando Norris attempted to do by hanging around the outside of Hamilton’s Mercedes before running wide. Even if the outside line naturally lacks the grip of the centre or inside, it is worth being stubborn if drivers can hold on as the left-hander that follows can reward those who stick with it with a better line and exit in turn two.

Verstappen had been concerned about the grip levels on the right hand side of the grid off the line before the sprint race, but his fears proved unfounded when Hamilton leapt out from second place into the lead and Verstappen held his position behind Alonso, with only pole-winner Norris losing places at the start by running wide.

Hamilton’s start may give some encouragement to Perez as he looks to emulate the Mercedes driver in the grand prix. But Verstappen has not been beaten in the run to the first corner so far in 2024 and will not be any more generous just because his team mate is alongside him.

Strategy

Although Shanghai offers a challenge to drivers when it comes to tyre degradation and temperature management thanks to its extremely long right-hand corners that can stress the left-front tyre, signs from the sprint race were that tyre wear was not as bad as it could have been. With most of the field starting on mediums, the compound showed a decent level of consistency over the 100km race, while even George Russell managed to make his softs work for him to move from 11th on the grid to take the final point in eighth.

Pirelli expect a two-stop strategy is the way to go for Sunday, starting on the mediums before switching to the hards later in the race. However, Russell showing that the soft compound can last a reasonable distance may have some teams considering running it where they may otherwise have not prior to Saturday.

Teams will have also benefited from the relaxing of parc ferme conditions after the sprint race, which allowed many drivers to tinker with their car set-ups before they were locked again for the start of grand prix qualifying. One such driver was Perez, who admitted after the sprint race that he “suffered a lot with tyre deg,” particularly at the rear end. Whether or not his changes prove successful or not may determine how close he is able to get to his team mate in the grand prix.

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Overtaking

As Verstappen showed in the sprint race, Shanghai’s extremely long back straight offers plenty of opportunities for quicker cars to get ahead on track. Historically, this circuit has produced plenty of overtaking: Its last five grands prix generated an average of just over 50 on-track overtakes each – however, that number is greatly influenced by the 2016 round which saw a whopping 128 competitive passes.

After concerns about the asphalt treatment agent applied to the track surface prior to this weekend’s event and how a possible variation in grip levels across the width of the track could affect overtaking, Hamilton was confident it will not be a problem for the grand prix.

“This track is has always been one of those circuits that is quite wide on a lot of the corners and provides lots of different lines,” he explained.

“Honestly, I don’t think the track surface has really made much of a difference at all in that respect. You could see Fernando behind me on a much different line to me and he was catching in certain places and losing in others, so that’s the bit I love about this track.”

Safety Cars

Despite being a very wide track with more than ample run off areas, Safety Car interventions remain a genuine risk in Shanghai – particularly in the opening laps.

There has not been a Chinese Grand Prix without either a Safety Car or VSC since 2014 – six races ago in the round’s recent history. But over that same time, there have only been two Safety Car deployments outside of the opening ten laps of the race.

One potential factor in this which became apparent on Friday – the occasional trackside fires which appeared at turn seven – did not recur on Saturday.

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One to watch

At Red Bull’s second team, it’s been all about Yuki Tsunoda so far over the start of the 2024 season. Daniel Ricciardo has been left mystified as to how he has seemed unable to catch a break, feeling his driving has warranted a good result.

On Sunday, however, it seems all the hopes for points for RB rest with him. While Tsunoda starts well down in 19th, Ricciardo needs to gain just two positions to end his scoreless start to the season. Given that he picked up three places in the sprint to finish just outside the top ten in 11th, he should be confident of making similar progress during the grand prix.

Over to you

Will Verstappen do the Shanghai double? Where might his strongest threat come from? Share your views on the Chinese Grand Prix in the comments.

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